Notre Dame entered the 2026 college football season with enormous expectations, and after a convincing opening victory over Wisconsin, the Fighting Irish appeared to be in a strong position to make another run at the College Football Playoff. But the latest bracket projection from On3’s Andy Staples has introduced a surprising twist.

Rather than placing Notre Dame among the elite teams competing for a top seed, Staples has dropped the Fighting Irish to the No. 7 seed in his newest projected College Football Playoff field. That is a significant change from his preseason projection, when he had Notre Dame as the No. 1 overall seed and projected the Irish to reach the national championship game.

The change does not mean Notre Dame is completely out of the playoff picture. In fact, a No. 7 seed would still put the Irish comfortably inside the 12-team field. However, the dramatic movement in the projection shows just how quickly the national conversation can change during the opening weeks of a college football season.

Notre Dame’s 41-13 victory over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field was one of the most impressive performances of the opening weekend. The Irish dominated the second half and showed the kind of offensive firepower and defensive discipline expected from a legitimate playoff contender. Yet, apparently, that performance was not enough to keep Notre Dame near the very top of Staples’ bracket.

The biggest talking point surrounding the projection is the distance Notre Dame has fallen from Staples’ original expectations.

Before the season began, Staples had the Fighting Irish as his top overall seed. His preseason projection even had Notre Dame reaching the national championship game before ultimately losing to Georgia.

That level of confidence suggested that Notre Dame was viewed as one of the most complete teams in the country. The latest projection tells a different story.

After the first full weekend of games, Staples adjusted his bracket considerably. Notre Dame dropped to No. 7, while other programs moved into more prominent positions. USC and Virginia entered the projected top 12, while Boise State replaced Navy as the projected Group of 5 representative. Oregon was also left out of the latest bracket after its narrow victory over Boise State.

The changes demonstrate that early-season projections are extremely fluid. One weekend can dramatically alter how analysts view a team’s playoff chances, even when that team wins convincingly.

For Notre Dame, the drop is particularly interesting because the Irish did not lose.

If there was one result that should have strengthened Notre Dame’s playoff résumé, it was the win over Wisconsin.

Playing at Lambeau Field against a Big Ten opponent gave Notre Dame an opportunity to make a national statement. The Fighting Irish took advantage of it, defeating the Badgers 41-13 in a game that became increasingly one-sided as the night progressed.

The victory showed Notre Dame’s ability to handle a high-profile opponent away from home. It also gave the Irish valuable national exposure and another result that could become important when playoff discussions become more serious later in the season.

Notre Dame entered the game ranked No. 4, according to the current Associated Press rankings, and the Irish backed up that status with an emphatic performance.

Still, the early playoff picture is not determined solely by whether a team wins. Analysts also consider the quality of opponents, how other highly ranked teams perform, remaining schedules and the potential strength of a team’s résumé by the end of the season.

That is where Notre Dame’s situation becomes more complicated.

Notre Dame cannot afford to become too comfortable simply because it has started strongly.

The Irish have several opportunities remaining to strengthen their playoff résumé, but they also have to avoid the kind of unexpected loss that could turn a top-four conversation into a fight for playoff inclusion.

The upcoming schedule includes Rice, with the Owls scheduled to visit Notre Dame on September 12.

Games like that may not generate the same national attention as Wisconsin, but they can still matter. Notre Dame is expected to win those contests, and failing to do so would create a completely different conversation.

The Irish also need to keep an eye on teams around them in the national rankings. With only 12 playoff spots available, Notre Dame will be competing against programs from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 for positioning.

That competition becomes particularly important because Notre Dame does not have a traditional conference championship game through which it can automatically improve its résumé.

Although falling from No. 1 to No. 7 sounds alarming, Notre Dame fans should keep the bigger picture in mind.

A No. 7 seed is still a playoff position.

Under the current 12-team format, teams outside the top four face a first-round game instead of receiving a first-round bye. That makes seeding important, but it does not make a No. 7 projection equivalent to being eliminated.

In Staples’ projection, Notre Dame would face USC in Los Angeles in the opening round. That would create one of the most compelling potential first-round matchups imaginable, given the long-standing rivalry between the Fighting Irish and Trojans.

A Notre Dame-USC playoff game would bring enormous attention to the postseason. It would also give the Irish an opportunity to settle the rivalry on the biggest stage.

For Notre Dame, however, the goal should be more ambitious than simply making the field. The program entered the season with national championship expectations. If those expectations remain intact, the Irish will want to climb back toward the top four.

Part of Notre Dame’s slide has less to do with the Irish themselves and more to do with what happened elsewhere.

Several highly ranked teams produced impressive performances during the opening weekend. Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and other national contenders strengthened their positions with convincing victories.

At the same time, teams such as USC and Virginia improved their standing enough to enter Staples’ projected playoff field.

That creates a crowded race.

The early season is always about separating contenders from pretenders, but the expanded playoff field has made the process even more interesting. A team can suffer a loss and still remain alive, while an undefeated team can find itself fighting for position because of the perceived weakness of its schedule.

Notre Dame therefore needs to focus less on the weekly projections and more on controlling what it can control.

The most important thing to remember is that this is an early projection, not the final College Football Playoff bracket.

There are still months of football left to play.

Rankings will change. Injuries will affect teams. Some highly regarded programs will lose games nobody expects them to lose. Other teams will emerge as contenders that are barely being discussed right now.

Notre Dame’s own trajectory can change dramatically.

If the Irish continue winning and produce more impressive performances, there is every reason to believe they can climb back toward the top of the national picture. A strong finish could make the current No. 7 projection look overly conservative.

The opposite is also true. A loss in one of the remaining high-value games could make the No. 7 position look generous.

That is why early September projections should be viewed as snapshots rather than predictions carved in stone.

Perhaps the strongest argument against panicking over the latest projection is what Notre Dame demonstrated against Wisconsin.

The Fighting Irish did not simply survive their opening major test. They dominated it.

The 41-13 result showed a team capable of controlling a game against a respected opponent and playing at a high level on a national stage. That should give Notre Dame plenty of confidence moving forward.

The challenge now is consistency.

One impressive performance is not enough to guarantee a playoff berth. Notre Dame will need to continue stacking victories while looking for opportunities to strengthen its résumé.

The Irish also need to make sure their performances match their lofty preseason expectations.

For Notre Dame supporters, the latest projection should probably be viewed as a wake-up call rather than a disaster.

Being projected as the No. 7 seed still means being projected into the College Football Playoff. The concern is not that Notre Dame has suddenly become irrelevant. Instead, it is that the margin for error may be smaller than some expected.

Staples’ preseason projection placed the Irish at the very top of the field. His latest bracket has them at No. 7. That movement illustrates the difference between preseason expectations and what actually happens once games begin.

Notre Dame has already taken an important step by beating Wisconsin decisively.

Now the Irish have to prove that the performance was not an isolated moment.

With the season still in its early stages, there is plenty of time for Notre Dame to climb the bracket again. The Fighting Irish have the talent, national profile and schedule opportunities necessary to make a serious playoff run.

But the latest projection serves as a reminder that nothing is guaranteed.

Notre Dame may have started the season as one of the favorites, but the College Football Playoff race is already becoming crowded. Every victory, every performance and every ranking movement will matter.

If the Irish continue playing at the level they displayed at Lambeau Field, there is little reason to believe they cannot move back up the bracket.

For now, however, Andy Staples has Notre Dame at No. 7.

And that may be exactly the kind of early-season challenge the Fighting Irish need.